The new scenario of fragmentation and partisan involvement of social organizations is becoming public and raises warnings in the government. After almost three years of negotiations, agreements, concessions and mutual benefits, reality has begun to change radically. The start of the election year and the economy at the height of the crisis offer objective conditions that threaten the volatile balance in which officials and social leaders coexisted.
Increasing tensions, unfulfilled contracts, shortening the street without warning, radicalization of discourse, intra-sector competition for more benefits for each organization (or each new faction), escalation of requirements. These are the facts and signs that the government began to register with the concern a few months ago. In recent weeks, an ascending curve has been recorded and hostile proposals have been reflected by force last Wednesday. The day of the demonstration, which completely interrupted traffic on 9 de Julio Avenue, surprised the ordinary social movement partners. Organizations admit that the measure was adopted with some difficulties and without sufficient internal discussion. Moderators have ended the campaign with the most fighters. It worries the context with excess brittleness.
Everything suggests that nobody wants to lose a poster in this emerging dispute to move to the opposition space and at the same time gain the advantages for the state. They will not be so easy: guerrilla attenuation of social leaders removes room for most of the dialogue and sympathetic factors of social problems.
It could be said that Juan Grabois, leader of the Popular Economic Workers' Movement (CTEP) and close relations with the Pope, illustrated the beginning of a new phase on the day he escorted Cristina Kirchner to the courts, the causes of the laptops of corruption.
To put it precisely, the starting point should be on 9 de Julio Avenue on February 21, when the Moyano Clan surrounded Grabois and other social counselors such as Daniel Menéndez of Barrios de Pie; the then triumphant Cegetista Juan Carlos Schmid; leaders of both CTA, Hugo Yaska and Pablo Micheli, and a large delegation of Kirchner's representatives who led the stage of Máximo Kirchner.
It was the beginning of a dynamic approach and constellations in the activities of sectors and actors that had not yet (and some emphasized) disparities in origin, militancy, ethical behavior, political projects, and power-building. Even with many inconsistencies, some who have been suspicious since the beginning of the Kirchner government's end began to converge in their growing confrontation with the government and at the height of Cristina's possible candidacy. The causes are multiple, but the illusion of regaining power, which is facing a decline in government popularity due to the economic crisis, is a powerful engine for all of them. Not only for the Kirchnerists who have lost control of the nation state and Buenos Aires, or Moyano, the jaqueados for justice. It is also for the leaders of social organizations, despite the almost privileged treatment they enjoy, especially from the Department for Social Development, which leads Carolina Stanley. His management is the key to his problems. Stanley was a reliable partner for a social leader, but also a trusted manager who took away the power of mediating and cracking the network of some of them with managing the resources that the state allocates to the most vulnerable sectors. It includes social plans as well as other contributions, such as food maintenance funds, snacks and various businesses in the neighborhood of the greatest need. Not only do large groups of the best known leaders, but also Catholic and Evangelical churches and smaller organizations, with whom the national and government offices of Marii Eugenie Vidal are working increasingly and more closely, operate in this universe. Problems of power and representation in conflict.
If the policy of reducing mediation is deepened, the capital of social leaders is suffering. Even if the economic situation did not improve, and the possibility of entering the world of formal work for the vast majority of excluded, which is its basis of support, continues to diverge. His strength lies in the ability to drive help and the mobilization capacity to claim. The first is under control. The last, so far, remains. For her, they are betting on the leader and what many politicians nowadays offer him. In the government, they suggest that Moyano bring the means to maintain the ability to occupy the streets.
The economic crisis and its political impact have paradoxical effects, which also help explain the construction of a new scenario. The government has weakened, but has not lost its hard core of support, while the new actor has not yet spoken to question his representation. Nor did he show any room in terms of moving from the main opposition to Kirchner.
Polarization still orders policy. Given that the ruling party is competitive in the presidential election in 2019, and Macri is re-elected, the steps that Grabois initiated with Cristina followed other social leaders, including several who moved with Kirchnerism. This is the case of the Evita movement led by Fernando "Chino" Navarro and Emilio Persico, who recently met and received another forgiveness that the former president is offering to those who return to their fold.
A little farther, but Barrios de Pie, with Daniel Menéndez on the front, is in the process of approaching and eventual constellation. Menéndez and Victoria Donda took the first step from Liberca del Sur to develop to dialogue with Kirchner, although they retained some differences and questioned Grabois for "crushing his head" with Cristina. Divisions are added only to those who manage power and reduce bargaining capacity from those who want to join without losing their identity and relevance. Grabois, however, tends to disturb everyone as it has been recently. After his energetic defense of the former president, he criticized Kirchner for corruption and condemned many of his leaders. Just like Lilita Carrió opposite sides.
Internal differences, the search for the importance of each of the leaders and sectors, as seen on July 9 last week, have an impact on everyday life and political reality.
The government daily follows the social situation, striving to strengthen the aid once it finds difficult situations and prepares to face the hot and half a month.
Last November, with the G-20 summit of heads of state and government, everyone can offer the prospect of December that awaits us on the streets. The government promises that this summit will bring external benefits with an internal impact to change. Kirchnerism will be part of those who protest against the international convergence of the ruling party and once again prove against the great powers. It's not just an ideology. Nothing that could improve Macri's situation and eradicate its collapse will be well received. Each time they feel more comfortable among those who are radicalized.
Moderators from both sides have a huge challenge and a huge opportunity to avoid extreme positions. It is not easy. Order-makers at all costs and arsonists, regardless of cost, gain land not only in Argentina.