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The central bank has presented its best balance for six years, but the reservations are worrying



With assets in principle in foreign currency and liabilities in pesos, dollar movements – decisive in the economic and financial debacle of 2018 – kept the central bank balance balanced with the effect of "liquefaction" and the extinction of Lebac.

According to the last one Overview of assets and liabilities Central, updated on November 30, Leliq's inventory is $ 711,436.7 millionIf you add the Lebac remains for about $ 116.318 million and other issues, BCRA's debt securities are 832.686,5 million pesos,

This amount accounts for 67.2% of all the money the economy operates with Currency base (currency in circulation, cancellations and current account balances) for 2009 1,238,890.7 million pesos, The Monetary Unit has committed to maintain this level of currency base by June 2019.

In observation active central balance sheets, Leliq and Lebac represent 42.8% of the reserves The international peso measure as at 30 November 2009 is $ 1,946,453.9 million ($ 51,193 million at $ 38,0217).

Consequently sudden devaluation the Argentine peso in 2018, more than 50% and the sale of reserves for disarmament to carry a trade from April 25, which ended in practice with Extinction of the Lebac, level BCRA's rewards against reserves fell from 111% on April 23 to 42.8% November 30,

You have to realize that the Lebac population reached on April 23 $ 1,377,767.4 million, before international reserves for $ 1,238,723.8 million ($ 61.185 million, at $ 20.25 per dollar exchange rate).

Alike debt in the entity's balance sheet, equivalent to more than $ 60,000 million or 11% of GDP, with a high interest rate on foreign currency assets, caused turbulence in the financial market, a dollar that has doubled its value in five months until it is exceeds 41 pesos 28th of September.

Best balance from 2012

There it is return for six years to find such a low relationship between paid liabilities and reserves. According to the central balance sheet as of 7.12 reserves international measures in the pesos have reached $ 220,770.3 million ($ 45,397 million, US $ 4,928), while securities issued by BCRA (Letters in local and foreign currencies) $ 96,312.4 million, 43.6% these reserves.

The monetary authority claims that it has been applying the current monetary policy regime since October with the arrival Guido Sandleris to the presidency of the subject, "are several factors that support sustainability these commitments. "

"In the last months, the central bank's balance has declined both in terms of GDP and in terms of foreign exchange reserveswith which the starting point provides greater room for maneuver to the new monetary policy, "says Central.

Between April and September, Argentine central bank liabilities, including letters, bills and passports, fell from 11.2% of GDP to 5.6% of GDP, while the ratio between foreign exchange reserves ranged from 110% to 40%. cent

"This dynamics was explained by a decline in Lebac's demand from the non-banking private sector since the beginning of the financial turmoil in April and later thanks to the Lebac disarmament program conducted by the bank." Central since August In the case of the ratio to international reserves, it also affected the growth observed in the exchange rate during this period, summed up the monetary unit.

Weakness of reserves

The panorama of the central bank is still visible many difficulties, S a an interest rate just below 60% In the pesos, liabilities will rise faster than the dollar, resulting in a gradual deterioration in the balance sheet.

On the other hand, it needs an Argentine economy restore your current account surplus – Commercial and tourism and services – so that net income dollars consolidate reserves In fact, the BCRA will shift its dependence on external credit as a source of foreign currency.

Today, the central bank's international assets are close $ 50,000 million, but this composition includes Payment of the IMF, which are available only to cover the debt, "exchange" with China, loan from the rest of REPO with banks and deposits private in foreign currency.

Therefore, net international reserves available $ 14.771 million until November 23, according to calculations Balanz CapitalIt is the quantity that barely covers five months of import,

Balanz said that "in October and November, BCRA did not participate in the stock market. variations of reserves international two factors: IMF transfers and debt payments ",

"The net reserves (discounted liabilities to the private sector, multilateral organizations and REPO, loans from banks covered by public bonds) stable in November around $ 14,700 million"he said.


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