Current exchange rate profit fell to 59.59%. The decline was turned into a discount on checks on the stock exchange and with less force on personal loans
The fall in rates, which has accelerated the central bank this week, has gradually begun to shift to the general public. Over the last three days, the monetary organization has taken from 56.60% to 54.89% the average rate applied to Leliqs, and has encouraged banks to reduce their interest on a current account by 171 percentage points, which they charge companies for a current account deposit, on average 59.59% a year, the lowest since late August last year.
The performance that the BCRA defines on a daily basis for its liquidity letters is the monetary policy rate that also serves as a reference for the financial system. So with every upward or downward movement of this rate, the shortest credit lines are the strongest to change.
In fact, the interest in advances on the current account recorded a strong jump between September and October, first when the then President of Central Bank Luis "This" Caputo took over the rate at 60% and later when Guido Sandleris faced hard adjustment at a rate of up to 73% per year. The costs paid by companies to expose money from current accounts exceeded 78% a year,
Now, according to the BCRA average, the exchange rate is 59.59%, which is the lowest value since August 30, when it was 47.2% manual. It should be noted that the figure is the annual nominal rate (TNA), as the total financial cost (CFT) is around 76%. Of course, this figure, in the midst of a tough monetary adjustment, has reached more than 100% a year.
The current account overdraft agreement, commonly known as "discovered", is the one most commonly used by small and medium-sized businesses to fund day-to-day cash. As the rate surged, the reserves of these loans in the first three months of the monetary adjustment decreased by $ 29.781 million and are still stable in January.
One of the main factors that accelerated the fall in exchange rates this week was the change in the currency agency as Leliqs posted on a daily basis. Strictly speaking, at the beginning of each round, the indicative amount to be placed will be shown, and then it will actually be awarded. No more weight nor weight. Previously, it ended with more money than stated, and the rate cut was very spread.
What does this change mean and how does it affect peace? Basically because banks are now offering lower rates because they are afraid they will not be out of court and will not pay their money. "BCRA has changed the bidding method, now they are reporting the amount and the banks do not want to stay out, speeds are reduced in an endogenous way faster," explains Santiago López Alfaro, a partner of Delphos Investment,
Where was this impact first affected in the call market, loans between one-day banks, which are the thermometer of financial system liquidity. On Friday, this rate was 53.21% on average, while yesterday it was around 46% a year.
What the currency agency managed to accelerate the fall in rates was the nominal fall in the dollar, which until Monday this week was increasingly active in the non-intervention area and did not even react to BCRA's purchases. During the week, at Leliqs auction, injected just under 79,000 million pesos and remained within the zero growth target of the currency base to conclude another month with a match.
So with more money on the market and a lower yield for pesos, the dollar did not last long to respond to the rise.
At the same time, the exchange rate paid by small and medium-sized businesses for discount checks at the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was accompanied by a trend that marked the central market. According to the daily Argentine stock market where these instruments are operated, yesterday the 30-day guaranteed discount rate was around 43.26% per annum and 43.10 for the 60-day period, low more than one percentage point from the previous week.
In line with families, some rates have been transferred to the cost of personal loans, albeit much more lukewarm. According to the most recent data of the BCRA on 29 January, the average amount of these loans was 63.2%, almost the same levels as in previous days, but almost two points below the level they charged 10 days ago.
"In ranks, such as personal loans, we have to wait for the consolidation rate to shrink before it is shifted to customers, always responsive to change, but not as sensitive as in the short term," they explain from a private bank.
Until it's down
In the city, they think that the fall in rates will continue in the short run, but not as aggressively as it was this week. "We have to see how price and transport increases affect inflation, but it's not clear that it's going down," says local bank leaders. "This is what defines the drop in rates is ongoing," he adds.
It seems that the external relationship is in favor of local assets. Although it was almost unnecessary for the Federal Reserve Bank to change its course yesterday, its confirmation gave a new impetus to the stock and bond to the pesos. This raises the dollar's pressure on the dollar and can give the monetary agency more air to continue cutting rates without worrying about the impact on the exchange rate.
Whatever it is, and although rates are at a very high level, cuts this week have begun to be passed on to families and businesses, which is crucial for the manufacturing sector to start to rise.
Find out the latest information on digital economy, startup, fines, corporate innovation and blockchain. CLICK HERE