The world is today in a big energy carrefour, unlike what happened in English in the Industrial Revolution, when the only source of energy was coal, or even in the 20th century, which can have its history calculated from oil. A great feature of these two moments of history was the presence of a monopoly energy source that has led the world to great rates of economic growth. Now everything has changed. And why did that change? Two main reasons: First, the demand for better quality of life and the protection of the planet; and the latter, derived from the former, have led to the emergence of disrupted technologies based on renewable natural resources that destroy the fossil fuels and monopoly nature of energy sources. This will bring energy independence with modular and diverse technologies in the field of renewable resources. The real revolution, the main advantage of which will be the consumer.
And how is Brazil? Brazil is a privileged country by having a huge variety of primary energy sources: we have water, wind, biomass, oil and natural gas and live in a sunny country.
The challenge is how to change this comparative advantage that nature has given us for the benefit of all Brazilians.
It will not be an easy task, but we have to build this path and face this energy transition that will lead to a 100% pure matrix. The first point we need to clarify and explain clearly is the importance of pre-salt throughout this Brazilian energy transition. Pre-salt is, of course, the largest circle of Brazilian opportunities for both economic recovery and energy conversion based on a 3D model (decarbonisation, decentralization and digitization).
Pre-salt is now the largest expansion threshold for oil and gas production for the next 20 years. At the auctions that took place between 2017 and 2018, only subscriptions of R $ 28 billion were provided. It is expected that the signing bonus of a difficult assignment will be something like $ 50 billion. The investments made by companies in exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas with auctions made up to 2016 and investments in 2017, 2018 and 2019 will reach ROL 1.5 trillion – the current GDP of Brazil. If we add investments that occur with the megaleilão from a difficult assignment, it will be more than 500 billion R $. Potential license fees will be $ 6 trillion by 2054 and the peak is expected between 2025 and 2035. The numbers are fantastic and extraordinary. We are talking about growing oil production from 2.5 million barrels per day to about 4 million barrels per day in 2021 and 6 million barrels per day after 2030.
In addition to this huge volume of oil, we will also be the major producers of natural gas. The gas market is weak today in Brazil. Legislation, regulation and investment in infrastructure is lacking. Natural gas has a huge growth space in the Brazilian energy matrix. And as it happens all over the world, it can and must be the energy of transition to a pure matrix. Today, in the United States, Europe and China, expensive and polluting diesel is replaced by natural gas in trucks. There are already roads where only gas cars can travel.
Brazil now needs and is using a cycle over the next 20 years to exploit oil and gas resources and energy and social transformation. For my generation, it is undoubtedly the last chance. Thanks to these resources, we can finance technological innovations that will enable the sustainable use of renewable resources in the future. We can not make the same mistake of the past, leaving this mission and responsibility with Petrobras. It is for Petrobras to deal with her interests and hence its shareholders; and the government, about the interests of Brazil and Brazil.
* BRAZIL INFRASTRUCTURE CENTER DIRECTOR (CBIE)