Monday , June 17 2019
Home / bulgaria / $ 50 a barrel of oil: What does it mean for the economy? – Blitz

$ 50 a barrel of oil: What does it mean for the economy? – Blitz



Only a few weeks ago most financial analysts and traders predicted that oil is on its way up to $ 100 a barrel.

At the beginning of October, light oil in the US traded almost $ 77 a barrel, but has since lost a third of its value and is currently just over $ 50.

What does it mean for the global economy? Bloomberg gives some examples of the possible effects of the fall of "black gold":

Who wins and who loses?

Major energy importers, such as India and South Africa, will certainly be on the side of the winners, while leading manufacturers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will lose.

Central banks, which are under pressure to raise interest rates, will be able to drink because declining fuel prices lead to a fall in inflation. On the other hand, those who are pushing for it, such as the Japanese Bank, will face new challenges.

The development of the situation depends to a large extent on how demand changes under the influence of the strong dollar, the escalation of tensions in trade relations and the reaction of large oil producers in the coming months.

Saudi Arabia is trying to balance the interests of Russia, its partner in controlled mining, and US President Donald Trump, who is trying to unleash supply and lower prices.

The expected week will be the G20 Summit, which should show clearly whether Moscow and Riyadh will reach a consensus on production quotas. It will also depend on the decisions of the OPEC countries to be held next week.

What will happen to global economic growth?

In the northern hemisphere, winter is coming, and low oil prices will help businesses and citizens reduce heating costs in the context of a slowdown in economic growth. Countries that import crude oil and maintain a negative balance on their current accounts will benefit from lower raw material prices.

For example, China, the largest oil importer in the world, is already struggling with the slowdown in its economy and the negative effects of the escalation of the trade conflict with the United States. The main importers include South Korea, South Africa, India and Turkey.

How does inflation affect it?

Low oil prices lead to lower inflationary pressures and weakening central bank pressure to raise interest rates. For example, in India, this trend may change the views of the central bank over the next few months. Institutions were preparing for new interest rates, but the fall in consumer price inflation could reject this decision.

How do emerging markets react?

Any reduction in oil prices of $ 10 leads to a growth of 0.5 to 0.7 percent of the gross domestic product of importing countries, statistics show Bloomberg.

However, the same decline has caused GDP in the Gulf countries to fall by between 3 and 5% per year. In Russia and Nigeria, negative effects range from 1.5% to 2% of GDP.

How does the left oil affect the world's largest economy?

US President Donald Trump believes that the weakening of "black gold" is equivalent to tax cuts. In recent years, the United States has greatly reduced its dependence on oil imports thanks to the so-called "Revolutionary Canvas".

This, however, means that the positive effects of the fall in fuel prices will be undermined by the problems encountered by American shale companies. With oil $ 50 per barrel, many will not be able to go green, warn experts quoted publications.


Source link