COLUMBIA, Mo. – It looks like this winter is a cold start with a cold cold weather that continued in November.
I have looked at the cold Novembre in recent years, but found that most of the winters that followed had a warmer month or two, except 2000-01. Early cold season does not necessarily mean that it will follow cold or snowy winter.
In the tropical Pacific, the El Nino weather pattern is developing and is expected to continue in the winter. Looking at the last winter, we had some very cold but also very warm. Normally strong El-Nino produces warm winters, like the winter of 2015-2016. However, other weaker years El-Nino also produced very cold winters, such as 2009-2010. Not only does El-Nino play the game but also the type.
In the winter, another El-Nino type called El-Nino Modoki can enter the game. Conventional El-Nino is characterized by strong warming in the Eastern Pacific Equator. While El-Nino Modiki is associated with strong warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific. Conventional El-Nino polar and subtropical jet streams generally remain limited in the winter during the Midwest, limiting cold air penetration and keeping the toughest rainfall over the South. On the other hand, El-Nino Modoki keeps the ridge far west, so that the polar nozzle sinks into the Midwest. This Western shift can also allow polar and subtropical jet phases, which gives us greater snow potential.
So here is the winter forecast ABC 17 Stormtrack: We expect colder than normal winter with great temperature variability and some notable arctic penetration. Snowfall will be higher than in the last few years, coming almost normally to 17-20 inches.
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