The Arab Monetary Fund expects Arab countries to grow by 3.1% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, reflecting the expectation that the growth rate of the Arab oil-exporting countries will continue to grow to 2.8% between 2019 and 2020. t and 3.1%. , For the expected difference in trends in economic activity across the Group.
This was stated in the Arab Economic Outlook published by the Fund in April, which included an update of the performance forecasts of Arab countries' economies at several levels, including economic growth, trends in domestic prices, monetary and financial conditions and expectations regarding the external sector in Arab countries in 2019A 2020.
The report pointed out that the most important political priorities of the Arab countries are to create more jobs that meet the challenge of unemployment in view of the high unemployment rate in the Arab countries, which will almost double the global unemployment rate. The unemployment challenge in Arab countries is concentrated in the youth sector, especially women, where youth unemployment rates have risen to 26%, which is also double the global average, according to World Bank figures. Globally, it is 40% compared to 15% of the world average.
The potential impacts of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the subsequent technological developments are increasing the range of challenges facing Arab countries in the future.
Addressing the challenge of unemployment requires Arab countries to adopt an integrated approach based on a comprehensive transformation of Arab economies, increasing labor market dynamics, facilitating access to finance, adopting institutional reforms to increase labor market flexibility and products, t observatories to explore labor market needs, seek greater integration into the global economy and conclude trade liberalization agreements and labor and capital transfers.
In view of developments in domestic prices, inflation rates in the Arab countries are expected to fall to 9.3% and 201% respectively in 2019 and 2020 respectively. 8.1% due to the low inflation rate in the Arab oil-exporting countries to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively. 5.9%. In 2019 and 2020.
At subgroup level, inflation in the GCC is expected to fall to around 1.3 percent in 2019, while inflation should be around 1.6 percent by 2020. The inflation rate in 2019 was around 6.3%.
In the oil-importing Arab group, inflation is expected to fall to around 11.8% in 2019 and 9.9% in 2020. t
In terms of monetary conditions, in 2019 and 2020, monetary conditions in the Arab countries are expected to be affected by economic trends, external demand levels and monetary policy stance in the United States and the European Union.