Angela Merkel is considered a personified predictability in a volatile world. But sometimes the Chancellor will surprise even those who are close to her. For example, in the fall of 2018, the CDU became accustomed to re-electing Merkel as party leader, but then the Christian Democrats lost their elections in Hessen. A few hours later, Merkel announced that she had given up the party leadership. Even her confidant, then Secretary General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, was surprised by the decision.
Today, Kramp-Karrenbauer is the leader of the CDU and again elections are held: Bremen and European elections in late May. Kramp-Karrenbauer invited the CDU to a closed session on June 2 and June 3, and speculation immediately began: Will Merkel also leave the Chancellery and meet him for the test? Will she do anything that no one else is waiting for her?
Merkel's departure would have merit
In any case, Kramp-Karrenbauer would like the Chancellery to be next federal elections which will be held regularly in 2021. The official bonus would greatly help her in the election campaign and with a modest vote for the Union would be a reassuring prospect. Kramp-Karren Bauer's personal popularity values have also dropped significantly after a brief high on the job because they do not have enough profiling opportunities. If they do so and intervene in foreign policy, as is the case with European President Emmanuel Macron's European political ideas, each of their statements is immediately removed from possible disagreement with the federal government.
In addition, Chancellor Kramp-Karrenbauer would have the freedom to change the Federal Cabinet and re-occupy ministries in which CDUs have failed – such as education, defense and business. In short: Merkel's withdrawal would have many advantages. However, this is unlikely to happen.
Merkel would have to go alone
In principle, change at the height of government could take place in three different ways. Two of them would need Merkel's approval. And all three would have a high risk for a potential successor.
The only option would be a constructive vote of no confidence. In this case, the Chancellor should be a candidate or candidate, that would be Kramp-Karrenbauer, im Bundestag gather an absolute majority against Merkel. Then she would be the head of government. However, it is very unlikely that this will happen.
Second option: Merkel decides to retreat and asks the question of trust – in the expectation of losing it. Even if it succeeds, the move carries the risk of early federal elections. Then Kramp-Karrenbauer would have no official bonus voting campain pull out.
The third option would be simple
Resigning without Merkel asks for trust. How it must happen is
The Basic Law does not regulate precisely, but it is clear that the Federal President would have to accept such a resignation. Then he could as an alternative candidate Bundestag Kramp-Karrenbauer
– and Members would have to vote for them, which would by no means be certain. Initially, it would not get into early federal elections.
Overall, if Merkel does not voluntarily resign, it is not possible to persuade her to retreat. And Kramp-Karrenbauer goes to great lengths to give the impression
to distract Merkel to make such a decision. On the exam in June, it's all about what lessons from the results
the current tax estimate from may to drawdown, that is from
Head of CDU.
Merkel always points out that she was elected Chancellor until 2021 and
Remember to stay in the office for so long. So she had it
she always said about her time as the head of the CDU – and last year
vote. But then the situation was different. CDU and CSU had two important state elections in rapid succession
lost. The political pressure on Merkel was enormous.
However, if the CDU worked poorly in the European elections today, it would be hard to be attributed to the Chancellor. Merkel gets rid of it strategically and personally
Election campaign out. Neither did she
Campaign orchestration, lecture or ringing on the front door.
Also means: Leadership, in particular Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer,
is solely responsible for any election defeat.
Protestant-obedient as she herself becomes in the case
she hardly feels compelled to resign. Mainly because Germany took over the EU Council Presidency in July 2020. She should ask Merkel for that
European political heritage
Don't miss this opportunity.