It is waiting for the housing market – a new analysis has come



Half as much and half of the intensive construction activity as in early 2000. They will have several very strong years (2017-2019), then the economy as a whole and the construction market will be very strong, but only a temporary decline will occur in 2020. Then the rapid growth will not return , but also the economy and construction will remain on a steady path of growth – read today the forecast for the construction of the market 2019-2022.

In the case of apartment construction, a 5% VAT rate generated a short and strong increase, which focused on Budapest, Győr-Moson-Sopron County, Pest District and some other significant sites. 5% of VAT on the supply and demand side was mainly funded by investors. There were flats where the VAT discount exceeded 50 million forints.

With more efficient means, it was possible to realize up to ten new homes. Much of this revitalization is now perceived as a lack of capacity, which will certainly be overcapacity, "said Dénes Varga, economist, market research manager at Market Forecast. We agree with those who believe that construction, including housing, is a strategic area where state ownership is needed Unfortunately, the measures that have been introduced in recent years – not surprising – have not changed their hopes or brought the castle's influence, which are the numbers supported, "he said.

Although the flat rate on 1 December 2018 remains valid for low-cost dwellings completed by 2023, the decline expected in the first half of 2020 will not be affected and growth should remain lower.

Missed opportunity

According to international forecasts, the most developed developed countries remain stable for the growth potential of the Hungarian economy, but with declining growth paths. According to the forecast analyst, the Hungarian economy will shift to a similar trail. It is unlikely that GDP growth will remain around 4%, but declining growth rates mean that the country's economic potential is expanding.

With a timely and focused take-up of EU subsidies and a revitalization of the housing market, the government is constantly increasing the value of construction activity and the number of homes built annually.

However, in the opinion of the supporters, it is not possible to maintain a high rate of growth. A significant decline is expected in 2020, followed by very modest growth. This means that the construction industry is still unable to fulfill its role of economic stabilization and trade balance. On the contrary, there are significantly more cyclical fluctuations than other sectors than in other sectors. The heavy labor shortage in the construction sector could be refuted by a more thorough revitalization policy as well as temporary overcapacity in 2020 and will end in the next few years.

What is the construction market forecast?

The forecast for the construction market is an independent medium-term forecast that provides a detailed analysis of the period 2019-2022. This is part of the survey, which gathers Builder's Building Industry experts on the state of construction and its prospects.
The forecast for construction markets 2019-2022, which is already the third year this year, provides seven regions with forecasts and provides regions divided into three groups.

In the autumn, questionnaires were completed by 339 building specialists – architects, designers and local construction market experts. The time horizon of the survey is 2020, when the forecast is expected to fall significantly and will not be available until the spring of 2019. However, the slowdown in growth rate for 2019 is already confirmed by the results of the survey.

Respondents in the current survey remain the most optimistic about multinational companies, but expect smaller or larger declines in all other customer groups compared to spring results. Expectations for sub-markets show less optimism in almost all areas, even in the case of well-functioning housing and housing improvement, with the exception of the sports and industrial facilities market.

The country was divided

At the regional level, central and northern Hungary are the two endpoints of housing construction. In less developed regions, it has virtually no effect on revitalization, but in more developed regions it has generated enormous volatility that would be much better avoided.

A long list of faults

As far as the housing market is concerned, analysts still need to be revived, but the way of revitalization does not serve the objectives of housing policy. It is a serious mistake that there is no objective in terms of housing, in addition to quantitative targets and adaptation to the EU's energy saving requirements. Accordingly, the tools are possible. It was a serious mistake. "Social housing construction" was the introduction of a 5% VAT for four years, which was primarily funded by investors on the supply and demand side as opposed to domestic consumption.

A major mistake is the abolition of the dignified requirement for housing that existing housing does not prevent the use of subsidies, the unrealistically high amount of irreversible support for three children. The state subsidy for "National Housing Loan" can not be justified and the missed idea is the planned higher sum of smaller settlements.

Removing subsidies for housing savings funds is perhaps the most serious mistake. This provided the opportunity to subsidize those who did not have the money to build or buy a new home. It solves the "wealth" of the system. The usual argument is that you can not afford a new home because of savings in housing, only renovations can be financed. Renovation of the apartment, however, represents an important first step in improving the quality of housing, whether it be a new home. Such a change would be acceptable if the use of savings and subsidies that were provided for non-residential use were difficult, experts say.

It often faces social policy and economic policy of the nature of housing policy. In today's practice, it unfortunately means that the government has a greater tendency to ensure that housing policy brings economic losses in the economic sense, not to imply that it is not in contradiction with the objectives of social policy. In fact, housing policy, for which the main objective of building many new homes is to stimulate economic growth, should not be focused on two dozen incomes, but on six medium-sized ones.

The policy objective of the economy must take into account the lagging behind of the lagging regions and regions, which is important when considering the long-term development of the volume. It is unfortunate, but it is likely that decision makers will not be able to analyze past experience from the 2000-2009 perspective or from the current experiment with incentives – they say prognostics.


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