Our most comprehensive earthquake: Kaikōura two years later



Scientists are still gaining a rich lesson from the Kaikōura earthquake, two years after 7.8. Shake shook the earth with an equivalent release of 400 atomic bombs.

Earthquake scientist GNS Scientist Dr. Rob Langridge said the incident that struck just after midnight on November 14, 2016 was one of the most complex earthquakes observed anywhere in the world.

This was to a large extent caused by the total number of mistakes that broke in one event.

More than 20 malfunctions have been activated – 14 of which have swung to move the land by more than one meter.

Nowhere, this effect may have been much more dramatic than in Kekereng Fault in Marlborough where the area was offset by up to 12 meters.

In some places, the bug was visible with raised folds of earth intersecting the landscape.

"Another lesson was that this complex earthquake spread across the region – the earthquake began with the failures in North Canterbury and jumped to the north and caused major mistakes in the Marlborough area," Langridge said.

"The cracked disruptions constituted a complex network of northeastern shocks that were linked to the North Shock Mistakes that had another way of moving."

In a broader sense, this event has prompted scientists to consider the role of the sub-classified Pacific Plate below Marlborough.

Previously, this part of the board was considered to be completely "locked" or attached to the bark, but now it seemed to play a major seismic role in this part of the South Island.

Soon after this event, Langridge and colleagues began collecting scientific data on interference, landslides, dams, tsunamis and liquefaction to help the community and provide advice to governments and councils.

"After a large collection of data, we decided to publish a number of scientific papers in several foreign and local journals to make the gaining knowledge a lasting place," he said.

"We are currently trying to understand the past history of violating some of these mistakes.

"So we have the money to go back to the mistakes of Paptea, Kekerengu, Hundalee, Humps and Leader, and the story of coastal waters to understand how these mistakes worked in previous Earthquake cycles."

Many work areas require much work, from seismology to geodesy based on GPS.

In addition to Fault Leader near Waiau, the country has been dramatically elevated. Photo / Kate Pedley
In addition to Fault Leader near Waiau, the country has been dramatically elevated. Photo / Kate Pedley

This summer, his team dug trenches through Papate Fault to understand when he moved in the past and how much he moved for many thousands of years.

This error has unleashed an incredible amount of slip in the earthquake in 2016 – scientists have since recorded 9m of vertical movement and 6m of horizontal motion.

"It's really up on the world stage like a huge shift in the country," Langridge said.

"Understanding how long it takes for this tension to accumulate is the key to unlocking these disorders."

It was less clear when another big earthquake could have taken place.

GeoNet recorded more than 20,000 consecutive injuries in the year after the earthquake, from which several thousand others were recorded.

However, only a fraction of these values ​​were greater than 3.0 and the number of consecutive consequences decreases.

The latest GeoNet forecast – a statistically based rate that calculated the probability – gave a 15 percent chance of a subsequent strike between 6.0 and 6.9 over the next three months and a 46 percent chance of it happening at some point 12 months.

Langridge saw the potential of future earthquakes as a case of human timing compared to geological ones.

"As I look at it, we live on the edges of the boards that are gathering about four meters each century," he said.

"In remote memory, we are talking about the Awatera and Wairarapa earthquakes of the mid-19th century that interrupt some of the significant disturbances of the boundaries of the plates.

"We've seen some other mistakes in central New Zealand that have been involved in this earthquake.

"We have to be prepared individually and as a company for prospects of future earthquakes – they are part of our makeup."


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