This week, a group of breeders produced quarterly figures and a clear winner appears to be Salmar.
"This quarter was a little mixed," says Tore Tønseth, a seafood analyst at Sparebank1 Markets at E24.
– Which companies are doing well?
"This is especially Salmar, who had an incredibly strong neighborhood," he says.
As many analysts look like in aquaculture businesses, what is called operational EBIT, which is a picture of the company's core operations before adjusting for the change in biomass value (fish).
Companies that provided a stronger business ebit in the third quarter than last year were Marine Harvest and Salmar.
On the other hand, the operating costs of Bakkafrost, Norwegian Royal Salmon, Grieg Seafood, Austevoll Seafood, Leroy Seafood and NTS have decreased (see table at the bottom of the case).
As expected, analysts Leroy Seafood and Bakkafrost have been disappointed with the operational ebite, while Marine Harvest and Salmar in particular have surpassed expectations.
Salmar has lowered costs in central Norway to a very low level, Tønseth points out.
"After the difficult times of the gap in 2015-16, the resulting high costs have now fallen to about NOK 32 in manufacturing prices in central Norway, a level that you have to return for several years to find an agreement," he says.
Friday's strong figures have increased Salmar's share by 8.5 percent per day. Stock prices so far have doubled this year from CZK 246 to CZK 498.
By disappointing growth
Several stocks also fell after quarterly reports after a significant increase this year. One of the stocks that gained the most stinking value is the Royal Norwegian Salmon.
– Norway Royal Salmon has failed growth. The market expected a projection of 44,000 tons next year, but the company led 40,000 tons. The stock also dropped by 15 percent, according to Tønseth.
A number of companies are expecting more performance next year than this year (see the table), but demand is on the rise as well.
"There has been some expansion in consultancy, but overall, companies are reporting volumes for the next year, which is higher than Kontali's analysis," says Tønseth.
– Volume for 2019 indicates a drain or a slight increase in prices. The fish are available and I think it is enough to avoid the balance between supply and demand next year, "he says.
A replacement banker1 estimates salmon prices for the next year at NOK 62, while Fishpool prices will be NOK 64 for the year 2019.
These are estimates of companies for the volumes of this year and next year:
|party||Volume 2018||Volume 2019|
|Sea harvest||380 000 tonnes||430 000 tonnes|
|Bakkafrost||46 000 tonnes||53 000 tonnes|
|Norway Royal Salmon||36 000 tonnes||40 000 tonnes|
|Grieg Seafood||75 000 tonnes||82 000 tonnes|
|Lerøy Seafood (salmon and trout)||179 000 tonnes||190 000 tonnes|
|Salmar||143 000 tonnes||145 000 tonnes|
Source: Company Quarterly Report and Presentation
Meanwhile, Norwegian and international producers are predicting that next year there will be more fish on the market.
– The numbers of listed companies are still showing an 5.1% increase in Norway next year, a little higher than expected and consensus. Most of them are based on an increase of 4% next year, says Tønseth.
The listed companies account for approximately half of Norway's production volume, according to the analyst.
"The listed company, estimated globally, estimates an increase of 9.2 percent next year," says Tønseth.
– It's about a third of the world's production, so it does not give the whole picture. However, this figure indicates a slightly higher growth than the market expected, which is a 4 to 5 percent increase in global production in 2019. Our estimate is 5.2 percent, he says.
|Company (currency)||Profit after tax in Q3. 2018||I was waiting for res. after tax in the third quarter. 2018 (SME / TDN)||Res. after tax in the third quarter. 2017||Operational ebit 3rd kv. 2018||He waited operatically
ebit, 3rd quarter 2018
|Operational ebit 3rd kv. 2017|
|Sea harvest (euro)||53.9 mil.||154 mil.||150.9 mil.||207.1 mil.||205 mil.||194.2 mil.|
|Bakkafrost (DKK)||355.9 mil.||139 mil.||56.2 mil.||142.4 mil.||190 mil.||212.2 mil.|
|Norway Royal Salmon (NOK)||141.6 mil.||–||175.5 mil.||35,5 mil.||–||192.4 mil.|
|Grieg Seafood (NOK)||220.4 mil.||–||182.5 mil.||159.7 mil.||–||229.3 mil.|
|Austevoll Seafood (NOK)||303,2 mil.||–||171.2 mil.||770,7 mil.||–||822 mil.|
|Lerøy Seafood (NOK)||528,6 mil.||554 mil.||302,7 mil.||660,1 mil.||737 mil.||861.3 mil.|
|NTS (NOK)||96.5 mil.||–||86.0 mil.||84.7 mil.||–||131.7 million.|
|Salmar (NOK)||922.2 mil.||590 mil.||968.5 mil.||939,1 mil.||752 mil.||801.3 mil.|