Even the moderate temperature increase agreed in the international climate change capability plan could see glaciers enduring so much in the century that their loss would be "irreversible," experts warned on Monday.
The Paris agreement of 2015 limits the demand for temperature rise "far below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above levels before industrialization and to less than 1.5 C, if at all possible.
The fact that 1.5-2C of heating was received in 2100 is the best scenario for scientists, based on our consumption of natural resources and the burning of fossil fuels, and will require radical and global lifestyle changes.
For comparison, human access to a common approach – if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate – will see the Earth heat up to 4 ° C.
Scientists have known for decades that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are shrinking, but they were supposed to survive a relatively intact temperature rise of 1.5-2C.
However, according to a new analysis published in the journal Nature Climate Change, even mild global warming can cause irreversible damage to polar ice and contribute to catastrophic sea level rise.
"We say that 1.5-2C is close to the threshold for dramatic effects of ice coatings," said Frank Pattyn, director of the Geoscience Department, Free University of Brussels and lead author of the study.
His team sparks data on the year's rise in temperature, ice coatings and known melt levels, and found that both ice sheets and Greenland should reach a "turning point" around 2 ° C.
"The existence of a tipping point means that changes to the ice sheet are potentially irreversible – returning to the pre-industrial climate may not stabilize the ice sheet once the tipping point is exceeded," Pattyn said.
Read also: Five things about Greenland
– "Rising Point In This Century" –
The ice, located in Greenland and Antarctica, contains enough frozen water to raise the world's sea level a few meters.
Only the Greenland glacier contributed annually from the mid-1990s to increasing the global sea level by 0.7 millimeters.
Masts open faster than anywhere else on Earth, with Greenland only 5C warmer in winter and 2C in the summer since.
Although scientists predict that it will take hundreds of years to melt even with a huge global warming, the Monday study is another reason for worrying about a single realistic plan of man that prevents warming up.
Many models of the 1.5-2C scenario allow the threshold to be exceeded in the short term and potential warming of the planet by several degrees higher than carbon capture technology and other technology to bring the temperature back to 2100.
The study, however, warned against this approach, however, saying that the loopback reflected by higher temperatures would "lead to the self-quenched melting of the entire ice sheet", even though these increments would later be offset.
For Greenland, the team, with 95% confidence, said that the ice sheets fall when heating at 1.8 ° C.
"For Greenland and Antarctica it is known that there are barriers to warming that could be achieved before the end of this century," Pattyn said.