Progressive Commissions: The decline in import-based consumption is governed by the GDP forecast for 2018



National Commission for Strategy and Forecast (CNSP) estimates a drop in final consumption released on Friday by 5.1% from 5.4% in July.


Picture of the forecast board: Reducing consumer demand more import-oriented, adjusting the forecast for 2018

Progressive Commissions: The decline in import-based consumption is governed by the GDP forecast for 2018

In the next two years, however, new estimates are slightly increasing: to 5.7% next year, from 5.6% in July and 5.5% in 2020 from 5.3%

At the same time, the forecast for which the Executive Director estimates that the budgets for 2021 and 2022 remain the same is 4.9% and 4.8%. Last year, final consumption grew by 8.4% compared to the previous year, with the largest contribution to the growth of the economy.

It is also estimated that actual actual household consumption will fall to 5.4% this year, from 5.5% in July, then from 6% in 2019 from 5.8% to 5.7% in 2020, from 5.6%. Between 2021 and 2022 it stabilized at 5.1%, from 5.2% in July and 5%.

In addition, the actual collective consumption of the government will fall to 3% this year, down from 4% this year, but will remain at 3% in 2019 and 2010. The current forecast is more optimistic for 2021, at 2.5%, from the previous 2%, but in 2022 it remained at the same level of 2%.

However, the current account deficit is expected to increase to 3.5% at the end of this year, compared with 3.1% in July to 3.2% at the end of next year, compared with the previous 2.8% to 2.9% 2.6% in 2020 to 2.6% from 2.3% in 2021 and 2.4% from 2.1% in 2022.

Instead, CNSP maintained its inflation forecast: at the end of this year it was 3.5%, at the end of next year 2.8%, at the end of 2020 at 2.5%, at the end of 2021 at 2.3%, and at the end of 2022 to 2.2%.

The Commission also appreciated the same levels for the average euro exchange rate: 4.65 lei this year, 4.62 lei next year, 4.60 Kč in 2020, 4.58 Kč in 2021 and 4.56 lei in 2022 .

Romania's economy will increase by 4.5% this year, according to a CNSP autumn forecast released Friday, a 1-point drop from 5.5% in July. However, the nominal gross domestic product (nominal GDP) is estimated at 949.6 billion lei, an increase of almost 0.49% compared to the July performance. The Romanian government has room for it to fall to the budget deficit of 3%.

In addition, GDP growth per capita is expected under these conditions: this year it is 48,760 lei, from 48,524 in July; to 52,808 CZK for the next year, from 52,550 lei; to 57,194 lei for 2020, from 56,911 lei; to 61 572 for 2021, from 61 296 lei; to 66,199 lei for the year 2022, from 65,928 lei.


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