National Commission for Strategy and Forecast (CNSP) estimates a drop in final consumption released on Friday by 5.1% from 5.4% in July.
Progressive Commissions: The decline in import-based consumption is governed by the GDP forecast for 2018
In the next two years, however, new estimates are slightly increasing: to 5.7% next year, from 5.6% in July and 5.5% in 2020 from 5.3%
At the same time, the forecast for which the Executive Director estimates that the budgets for 2021 and 2022 remain the same is 4.9% and 4.8%. Last year, final consumption grew by 8.4% compared to the previous year, with the largest contribution to the growth of the economy.
It is also estimated that actual actual household consumption will fall to 5.4% this year, from 5.5% in July, then from 6% in 2019 from 5.8% to 5.7% in 2020, from 5.6%. Between 2021 and 2022 it stabilized at 5.1%, from 5.2% in July and 5%.
In addition, the actual collective consumption of the government will fall to 3% this year, down from 4% this year, but will remain at 3% in 2019 and 2010. The current forecast is more optimistic for 2021, at 2.5%, from the previous 2%, but in 2022 it remained at the same level of 2%.
However, the current account deficit is expected to increase to 3.5% at the end of this year, compared with 3.1% in July to 3.2% at the end of next year, compared with the previous 2.8% to 2.9% 2.6% in 2020 to 2.6% from 2.3% in 2021 and 2.4% from 2.1% in 2022.
Instead, CNSP maintained its inflation forecast: at the end of this year it was 3.5%, at the end of next year 2.8%, at the end of 2020 at 2.5%, at the end of 2021 at 2.3%, and at the end of 2022 to 2.2%.
The Commission also appreciated the same levels for the average euro exchange rate: 4.65 lei this year, 4.62 lei next year, 4.60 Kč in 2020, 4.58 Kč in 2021 and 4.56 lei in 2022 .
Romania's economy will increase by 4.5% this year, according to a CNSP autumn forecast released Friday, a 1-point drop from 5.5% in July. However, the nominal gross domestic product (nominal GDP) is estimated at 949.6 billion lei, an increase of almost 0.49% compared to the July performance. The Romanian government has room for it to fall to the budget deficit of 3%.
In addition, GDP growth per capita is expected under these conditions: this year it is 48,760 lei, from 48,524 in July; to 52,808 CZK for the next year, from 52,550 lei; to 57,194 lei for 2020, from 56,911 lei; to 61 572 for 2021, from 61 296 lei; to 66,199 lei for the year 2022, from 65,928 lei.
If you liked this article, follow MEDIAFAX.RO on FACEBOOK »
The content of www.mediafax.ro is exclusively for your personal data and use. It is prohibited Publish the content of this site without the consent of MEDIAFAX. To obtain this agreement, please contact us at [email protected]