Summary of Messages from 29.11.18

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Dollar to comply with Jerome Powell's comments, which investors considered cautious. President Fed told the New York Economic Club yesterday that interest rates are now close to the "neutral" level, while in October he said they are still far away. Powell, however, did not mention either the slowdown in the economy or the pause hypothesis in raising key rates.

The pound fell against the euro yesterday after the publication of the Bank of England report indicating that leaving the UK without agreement and without a transitional period would lead to a 25% drop in sterling and the end of GDP at the end of 2023 at a low 7.75%10.5% compared to projections published in May 2016.

Jenu this morning, following the release of excellent retail sales in October (+ 3.5% at the annual rate), reflected growth acceleration in the fourth quarter.

Brent dropped yesterday to a 13-month minimum in the closing price. Oil stocks grew ten consecutive weeks.

Today, the ECB's main report on financial stability, Germany's preliminary consumer price index, the hearings of Theresa Maya, the Brexit parliamentary committee, and the Fed's minutes of today's events without forgetting the G20!


Fed, Jerome Powell was cautious when announcing that interest rates are now close to a "neutral" level, while in October he declared they were still far away. Powell, however, did not mention either the slowdown in the economy or the pause hypothesis in raising key rates. Jerome Powell said rising debt and falling credit quality for some US companies were one of the key weak points of the US financial system.

Brexit, According to BOE, Brexit would have reduced the British pound by 25%, GDP by the end of 2023, down 7.75% to 10.5% from projections published in May 2016, without agreement and without a transitional period. that a close relationship would allow the pound to appreciate in the short term from 2% to 5%.

EU / USA, Donald Trump announced his intention to impose US car tax on car imports in the United States.

Commercial War, The US administration said on Wednesday that China had not made any "proposals for significant reform" of its business practices.

Japan, Retail sales growth reached 3.5% yoy (yoy) in October, record levels from December 2017.

UkraineTwo Ukrainian ports on the Azov Sea are blocked by Russian ships, said the Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure this morning.

Appointment of the day:

Macroeconomic calendar of 29 November 2018 from DailyFX

Macroeconomic calendar 29 November

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5 terms that could ease fears in stock markets

Since the beginning of November, major international stock market indices such as the S & P 500, CAC 40 and Nikkei 225 have maintained the medium-term technical support levels over which the final rally scenario can see the day.

Oil prices are falling to the bottom of the new recovery, the price of natural gas is decreasing

Oil prices resumed a decline in the middle of the afternoon as a result of the US Department of Energy report (DoE), which suggests further oil rigging last week. It is the tenth consecutive week that oil inventories have risen, a fourth-quarter higher than expected (+ 3.577Mb vs + 0.769Mb).

EUR / USD – DXY: The dollar strengthens ahead of Jerome Powell

The probability of three increases in rates of 25 bps or more by December 2019 rose from 48% to 37% in one month. The main reason for this decline in expectations is to raise Fed rates faster than expected by the same economists at the beginning of the year.

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