Investing.com – As expected, on Tuesday, the Russian market was revived after a sharp correction on the eve of a Sunday incident in the Kerch Strait. And what was supposed to be, it was possible to actually recover, with the exception of the ruble – with 2290 p. On Tuesday evening ended just below the 2340 p. Only three points did not reach what was closed on Friday. The index had to be worse: on Friday it ended up over 1110 pts and flew on Monday under 1080 p. Then spent the whole Tuesday in the corridor 1095-1100 p.
It is not difficult to predict that in this situation the MosBirzy index is almost completely indebted to its growth in the ruble. While he finished up to 67.1 before, he constantly strengthened the morning to exactly 66.5 rubles. – and then even more smoothly until 19.00 in Moscow he returned to his previous positions.
"Last Friday, the market was strongly reacting to a drop in oil prices, but then stabilized, and on this background Russian stocks still look cheap, and as soon as world markets stop falling, the Russian market is on the rise, mainly on the emotional reaction. tough Western claims, and the market sees no significant risk, "said Edward Kharin, Alpha Capital's portfolio manager.
There was no reason to hope for a full reflection: in general, there is little positive on the world market. "Today everything has fallen further, it was not purely Russian history, all the assets of developing countries felt bad," said Oleg Kuzmin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital. "And it is good that if world history affects us, if we see that other markets are moving in our market and nothing is happening in our country, it will mean complete isolation."
There is a chance that the world market will come to life – and that will boost Russian supplies. "We can expect a moderation in the monetary policy of the Fed – more and more members of the Committee of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) they tend to believe that rough rhetoric becomes useless, "said Edward Kharin, and this alone is not enough to launch a" new rally year. "" We need another good report – such as addressing the trade war with China, but that is unlikely. However, even if the parties disagree, it is enough for the United States to postpone the introduction of new obligations – one positive and one neutral event together can create positive backgrounds, "he believes.
As for the future prospects of the ruble, opinions differ. "Recently, the barrel has fallen by $ 20 and the dollar has risen by just a few rubles, and everyone understands that the Finance Ministry will enter the currency market again in January, so it is hardly worth talking about linking the ruble to oil," says Oleg Kuzmin. His colleague, on the contrary, believes that improving the situation on the oil market can help the ruble. "While there is hope for an OPEC + agreement, oil futures are overtaken in the long run, now gaining a normal form, and it gives hope that oil can still grow: former market participants have clearly shown the price to fall – every other contract cheaper, now every other contract is more expensive ", – notes Oleg Kharin.
However, the current oil price dynamics does not allow confidence: after receiving the latest comment, the bubble Brent, which rose from Monday to Friday from $ 58.5 to $ 61, suddenly fell to $ 59.6.
(Text prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)