Investing.com – The Russian market on Wednesday demonstrated, as they say, a "multi-directional movement". Despite the fall in stock market indices that lasted two days before, and the lack of reports that could change this trend, both have risen. increased by 1.81%, the index – by 1.35%. Stocks of most of the main participants in the indices, including Sberbank, remained in red, but Gazprom (MCX 🙂 made the overall depressing picture clear: its CFO Andrej Kruglov said that by the end of 2018 the dividend in rubles per share could be "double digit".
Based on the fact that in the past two years the company paid only slightly more than 8 rubles. we are talking about dividend growth by at least 25% – and quotes rose by 7.66% and ripped index dynamics from the overall market situation. "The index brought to Gazprom information on a possible increase in dividends. Sberbank's (MCX 🙂 shares, the most liquid securities on the market, have become cheaper, with more documents appearing at the top, but it is likely volatility that is not for the index or for without news of Gazprom, the index would be zero in the present case, "says Roman Ermakov, head of Lanta Bank's sales department.
The fact that the generous dividend policy of many Russian companies often explains the problems of business development and the inability to invest effectively in raising the value of their own assets does not bother investors. And it just remains to say that the stronger the dividend vow is, the stronger the correction will actually be.
From the above, it is clear that the negative dynamics of the ruble exchange rate on index behavior almost can not influence. In the first half of the day, the dollar rose to 67.4 rubles. and it took almost the whole day at this level. The reasons for the ruble's weakening were enough. In particular, the President of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullin, said that the central bank will continue to buy the open market currency on January 15th. "Maybe the market reaction is excessive – no decision was announced but only a statement of intent and the central bank has promised to act carefully and will not have a negative impact on the ruble," says Nordea's chief analyst Denis Davydov. – Rubel also remains under moderate pressure due to political risks until the West's tough declaration on the incident in the Kerch Strait has been made, but continues, and in the second half of the day, the Minister of Foreign Affairs announced negotiations with the ambassadors of the European Union on new measures against Russia. And the oil market remains weak: price dynamics are not significant and oil reserves in the United States last week rose again by 3.5 million barrels, which means that statistics are not honestly for price rises. "
The dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices is a controversial issue. But in any case, the forecast announced by the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade, according to which Russia would not only reduce, but increase oil production, in 2019, should not be in favor of the Russian currency. However, according to Denis Davydov, the situation is not so straightforward: "OPEC + measures to maintain balance are still possible, and sanctions against Iran will eventually become more prominent." The United States surrendered to those countries after imposing these sanctions are not provided forever but only 180 days, and even if they are renewed, there is still an implicit decline in public procurement, resulting in Iranian oil exports in the fourth quarter, 2019 may fall from 1.5 million to 1 million barrels per day, "he notes.
One possible trigger that may change the intelligence background may be the meeting of US and Russian presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in early December. On Wednesday night, however, Moscow's Donald Trump, in an interview with The Washington Post, called Russian actions in an "aggression" incident that he did not "like" and said he could cancel the meeting completely, according to the National Security Agency report. Despite this, Putin's administration later said that they did not know about the abolition and continued to prepare the meeting as before.
Already at the end of the main trading session, the dollar rose sharply to increased volumes: by 20:00 it fell to 66.9. The reason for this was the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who said the gradual rise in interest rates carries a balanced risk and is "just below the neutral level." Investors' expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of next year's growth rates have increased, along with fears of slowing economic growth. However, the jump has so far been short-term: by 10:30 in Moscow the dollar again rose by 5 kopecks.
(Text prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)