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Silence and Gold from Investing.com



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Investing.com – World markets continue to grow, by 20 am in Moscow, 500 added 0.9% and reached the level of October 26 last year, ie almost won the losses of the last long recession. Boeing (NYSE 🙂 shares rose 5.2% to serious news: sales and profits for 2108 significantly exceeded analyst forecasts, the company also said it plans to deliver 900 commercial aircraft in 2019 against 806 in 2019. Apple's share (NASDAQ 🙂 grew by 4.3% after announcing a sharp increase in sales of services, and its CEO Tim Cook said the US-China trade-related tensions are loosening.

However, where Apple's CEO took such information, it is not entirely clear: the latest reports on the US-Chinese issue were the initial official charges against Huawei in the United States, which could hardly contribute to "reducing tensions."

Market growth is partly due to the continuing expectations of the rhetoric of the Fed's meeting that has begun today. Economic reports are not very good: According to ADP, the number of employed in the US non-agricultural sector increased by 213 thousand in December against 180.9 thousand. and as a result – increasing pressure on the labor market. At the same time, property sales are declining, the incomplete sales index declined 2.2% in December, with an expected growth of 0.8%, and declining for the third consecutive month. Many experts point out that the Fed is on the heels: continued tightening of monetary policy will seriously harm the market and may not be beneficial to the economy as a whole. At the same time, the refusal to raise rates will look like recognition of the economic problems and US concessions to pressure, that is, it can compromise the image of an independent regulator – and this is even worse than not raising the rate in bad times. However, it would not be lucky, but it helped the misfortune: due to the government's "shatdaun", many news reports are delayed, and the Fed's leadership has a formal reason to remain silent.

Oil is rising due to reports that last week in the US rose only 0.9 million barrels, with a forecast of 3.1 million barrel growth. The fact that it is growth does not hurt anyone. It is true that the fact that gas reserves in the country have dropped by 2.24 million barrels, with a growth forecast of 2.8 million, is the first drop in the last nine weeks, is really encouraging.

Another growth factor is the continuing development of the Venezuelan crisis. Today's authorities arrested the accounts of President Juan Guayd, who claimed to be President and forbid him to go abroad – a clear response to the acquisition of the right to liquidate property of the government and central bank of Venezuela in US bank accounts. By 20.40 in Moscow, the futures on the major increased by 1.8% to 62.3 USD.

This situation seems to be extremely positive for the Russian economy. Only there, apart from private funds (to the extent that private funds such as Rosneft (MCX :)) can be considered, there are about $ 17 billion worth of government debt, mostly weapons. And although experts often explain that "in fact, these weapons were still removed and the real figure should be divided by 20," but it is still unpleasant. On the eve of the Deputy Finance Minister of Russia Sergei Storchak admitted that perhaps getting the debt from Venezuela can be difficult. And today, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak has admitted that Russian companies may have problems.

And today, Bloomberg, referring to two sources, announced that Caracas airport is based on Russian Boeing, which has Venezuelan central banks intend to export 20 tons of gold worth roughly $ 840 million or roughly a fifth of the country's gold reserves. If this statement is true and the current official Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro loses the power struggle, it is no wonder that Russia and Russian companies may have problems with the country's new leadership. It should be noted that the attempt to evacuate the reserve of gold is a very strong indication of Maduro's readiness for such a result. The official representative of the Venezuelan government refused the presence of the aircraft itself at the airport, although FlightRadar's flight data is available. Russian authorities denied involvement in the appearance of the aircraft. It seems that someone else in Russia, the Venezuelan proved to be more expensive than the Russian debts. However, believing that someone in Russia in the current situation has decided to leave the plane to Venezuela without the knowledge of the Russian authorities is even more difficult.

Meanwhile, the Russian market, as well as weeds, is still growing in everything that is happening. The ruby ​​index MosBirzhi updated the historical maximum – 2513.77 p., And by the end of the day it rose by 0.54%. The Rising Index rose by 0.64%. So when the ruble begins to weaken again, the MosBirzy index will still have a large margin for setting new records.

In fact, the ruble is stubbornly trying under the 66th mark. Today, before 7 pm in Moscow, the dollar fell in price by 13 kopecks. up to 65.92 rubles. In addition to all the above, the ruble – dollar weakness, rising oil prices and other things – continues to be a seasonal factor. "Seasonality remains, market slumps in the first quarter, imports are declining, and export revenues, whose peak is declining at the end of the year, are still on track – that is, currencies are more than the market is able to spend. not following oil and sanctions, then February will likely be calm, this trend will continue, "says Oleg Solntsev, a leading expert of the Macroeconomic Analysis Center and short-term forecasts.

Against the backdrop of continuing interest in rubles, the Treasury Department reported in full the OFZ worth 25 billion rubles. – However, it reduced the supply volume, apparently taking into account the previous attempt to allocate 35 billion rubles at a time. was not very successful. "We have put good demand on the market, mainly local buyers, there is a broad demand, in the midst of a strong ruble, the expected Fed interest rate pause, and the interest of global investors in developing countries." Nine-sidedness is now lower because they fear sanctions, "says senior analyst BCS Sergei Suverov. "It may take several weeks and it is difficult to plan later, because Russia's action in the Venezuelan conflict can speed up the development of the sanction theme."

(Text prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)


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